Associate Professor and Researcher
Econometrics and Applied Statistics
Sudan
Econometrics and Economic Models, Applied statistics, theory and statistics, Time series and methodologies, Data and methods of analysis, Statistical and Econometrics packages . Scientific research and data analysis literature
Dynamics relationships among uncertainty in economic policies, Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation Rates in BRICS Countries: Evidence for linear and nonlinear, measurements and assessments 1992-2023
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty in economic policies, Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Inflation Rates in BRICS Countries. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDR) and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) were performed using time series data from 1992 to 2023. Less attention has been given directly to the investigation of macroeconomic uncertainty in different regimes of economic growth in BRICS Countries. Three states are found for economic growth, with mean growth rates of negative 3.12% and positive 3.35% and 1.43%, respectively. However, fiscal consolidation does not completely reduce the negative impact of macroeconomic uncertainty. The transition probabilities of economic growth moving and returning to the same states are 30.25%, 34.55%, and 58.41%, in each country, respectively. The time-varying impulse response functions showed that the shock of macroeconomic uncertainty harms Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Inflation Rates. Nevertheless, the multiplier effect is not large; however, the economy operates below equilibrium and does not restore equilibrium after the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty. This reflects that it takes time for macroeconomic uncertainty to filter out of the South African economy. It is recommended that fiscal consolidation be considered as an accommodative fiscal policy to reduce macroeconomic uncertainty but not as a main policy for economic growth. And maintaining stable inflation rates.